Parallel Polls and an Uncertain Future

On 6th May 2021,  the UK went to several important polls, the results of which were declared over the past two days. This included the English county council elections, the Police and Crime Commissioner elections, several parliamentary by-elections, the mayoral elections of London, Bristol, Liverpool and other important cities and the London Assembly. However what everyone had their eyes on was the Welsh Senedd and the Scottish Parliamentary Elections. Political analysts across the UK considered these elections as a litmus test of affirmance or denial with the policies of the Boris Johnson led Conservative government at Westminster. The elections results were a disaster for the Labour Party and particularly for Keir Stramer who failed to initiate the much needed revival of the party electorally as was expected after he took office as the Leader of the Party  after the party's electoral collapse in the 2019 General elections under the leadership of Jeremy Corbyn.  

An ecstatic Boris Johnson at Hartlepool who called the results very encouraging. The Tories performed remarkably well in the County councils winning 2198 seats and emerged as the second largest party in the Welsh Senedd and Scottish Holyrood.

One of the first results that was declared was of the Hartlepool by-election. A Labour stronghold for sixty years, the Tories won the seat for the first time as per expectations. However what is disastrous for the party was the huge margin of 51.9% with which the Tory Candidate Jill Mortimer won the seat. This also symbolises the gradual decay of the Labour Red Wall- a term used for denoting Labour strongholds in the Northern parts of England, a significant portion of which turned blue during 2019. In the county council elections, where Labour's performance has been particularly poor, the Labour lost nearly 250 seats winning only 1268 and a number of seats mainly to the Tories which has won a whooping 2198 seats across thee counties. Whilst the Liberal Party has more or less held onto its turfs, the Green Party won an astonishing figure increasing their seat tally by over 50%. In the 39 Police and Crime Commissioners Elections of England and Wales introduced in 2011 to bring in greater public accountability in the Police System, the Conservatives won 20 seats to Labour's 12 whilst the Wales based Plaid Cymru won only 2. It must be noted that the turnout of these elections are actually low since its inception.

Sadiq Khan, Labour won a second tern as Mayor of London. The election uses the Supplementary vote system with candidates casting two votes: a first preference and a second preference vote. In case, a candidate fails to win the requisite 50% vote, the top two candidates proceed to a second round and all other candidates are eliminated.

The Labour has some reasons to rejoice in the urban areas. Barring West Midlands and Tees, Labour won all the other Mayoral elections at Bristol, Cambs & Peterborough, Doncaster, Liverpool, Liverpool City Region, Greater Manchester, Northern Tyneside, West of England and London. Sadiq Khan was returned as the mayor of the Home of the Big Ben. However one has to remember that the Central leadership has a minimal role to play in these victories. It was the anti-incumbency factor or the personal charisma of the mayoral candidate that helped the Roses to win these. Sadiq Khan's victory can also be attributed to the factor that his rival tory candidate Shaun Bailey was a controversial figure notorious for his misogynistic temperaments. The Labour won 11 seats in the London Assembly two short of a Majority whilst Conservatives won 9. The Liberal Democarts were beaten by the Greens who got 3 seats over the former's 2.

The Welsh Senedd saw the Labour Party remaining in power for the sixth time in a row with Mark Drakeford returning as Welsh First Minister.

The Labour Party also won a decisive mandate in the Welsh Senedd Elections. In the 60 seat assembly 40 seats are single member constituencies where the First Past the Post System is employed. The remaining 20 are for the 5 regions of Wales where the seats are allocated to the parties according to their vote shares in the specific region. The Labour won 30 seats, one short of majority. The Conservatives won 16 seats whle the Plaid Cymru got 13 and Lib Dems 1. However since 1999, the house has always been under the control of the Labour Party under whose tenure this devolved Parliamnet was established. Again, Mark Drakeford, the Welsh First Minister's schemes were far more instrumental in the Labour victory. 

The Scottish Holyrood got a Pro-independence majority of a coalition led by the Scottish National Party and the Scottish Greens. The Scottish First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon won her seat and stated that though her first priority at this moment remains tackling the Covid-crisis, the party will move towards a second Independence referendum before 2026.

The results of the Scottish Holyrood Elections once again places strong apprehensions on the UK's future existence. The Scottish National Party got 64 seats one short of a majority and has announced its intentions to form a coalition with the Scottish Greens which have 8 seats. It's tally increased by one seat when it gained the East Lothian seat from Labour. The elections too uses the Mixed system like the Welsh Senedd. The electorate begins from 16 years old and this time enfranchised the refugees living in various parts of Scotland. SNP however failed to win the Dumfriesshire seat, the most marginal of Scottish constitencies whose constituents voted for the Tories. SNP leader and Scottish First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon has come out with guns blazing at Boris Johnson and other 'Brexit' pro-unionist parties stating that the SNP would wait until the Covid crisis is somehow under control. However before the next election scheduled in 2026, they have made their intentions cleat to have a second independence referendum. Although it is Westminister that has the sole right to answer these constitutional questions, Sturgeon has emphasised that it should be decided upon by the Scottish Parliament and Westminster and Boris Johnson who particularly opposes the idea should step aside. The pro-unionist parties comprising Conservative, Labour and Lib Dems got 31, 22 and 4 seats respectively. Had they contemplated on a pre-poll alliance instead of a post-poll one, they would have got a better shot pf winning a majority and could potentially cause decay unto the SNP's fortunes. If Scotland is out, other constituents of the UK is expected to follow suit particularly if there is a hung Parliament in 2024. The riots in Belfast shows the strong anti-UK feelings in Northern Ireland which has over the years gone more proximal to its Irish brothers in the south. This has been strengthened with the growing irrelevance of the religion factor which played a great role in Northern-Irish self determination in the past century with Catholics being pro-Irish and Protestants being pro-UK.

The Election was a test for the Labour Party Leader, Keir Stramer who succeeded Jeremy Corbyn in 2019. He has called the results to be disappointing something which can also be said about his leadership.

The various elections was remarkable in a number of ways. Firstly it was a test whether the various governments have dealt with Covid-19 pandemic effectively. It also was a test for Keir Stramer and whether he has successfully regenerated the Labour Pary's fortunes well enough to provide a strong opposition to the Tories in 2019. It was also a mandate for SNP to justify their pro-independence claims. It seems that the Tories have succeeded in convincing the people of its programmes and has a strong possibility to come back in 2024 with a majority. The Labour in the meantime should either get itself a new leader who would not hesitate to lock horns with the Tories unlike Stramer or suffer the fate of other left-leaning socialist parties in other parts of the world. 

(Statistics from the Gurdian.)