The Subhendu Squabble

On 19 December last year, Veteran TMC leader and one of its founding Members, Subhendu Adhikary had quit from the TMC to join the Bharatiya Janata Party. He had resigned from his Ministerial positions on 27 November and his seat in the West Bengal Legislative Assembly on 16th December where he was representing the Nandigram Constituency. Adhikary was one of the principal faces of the party due to his role in the Nandigram movement when he led the Bhumi Uchhed Pratirodh Committee at a time when the former Left Front Government had acquired 10,000 acres of land in the village to set up a special Economic zone. Coming from a very political family, with his father and siblings being in active politics, he is credited to increase the TMC's footprint in the Jangal Mahal districts. He had been an MP from 2009-16 and had represented Nandigram post the 2016 Assembly polls.

Mamata Banerjee along with Subhendu Adhikary and Sishir Adhikary. The former was the Minister of Transport and Environment in the Second Mamata Banerjee government, positions from which he resigned on 27 November.

Although Subhendu has never specifically mentioned his reasons for leaving the party which he founded, media reports speculate that the fundamental reason was that the CM and TMC supremo, Mamata Banerjee favoured her nephew and MP Abhishek Banerjee who is perceived to be the heir-apparent to the supreme positions in the Party and Government once Mamata retires. When he joined the BJP in the presence of the top BJP leadership of the state and the Home Minister, Amit Shah he echoed his new party's agenda of removing the `Tolabaaj Baipo' and establishing Sonar Bangla. Since then, he has addressed numerous rallies and led many processions to push the BJP's image in the districts. The ruling party too has loftingly granted him Z+ security and made him the Chairman of the Jute Corporation of India- an industry which was once and till now a big revenue earner for the state of West Bengal.

Subhendu joined the BJP in the presence of Amit Shah and state BJP President, Dilip Ghosh on 19 December. He had conceded to the fact that he was in contact with the BJP since 2014 and that the former had contacted him twice after he had contracted the Coronavirus the last year.

Even though, the TMC refuses to acknowledge the loss of Adhikary to be harmful for the party, but deep down the loss is irreparable with catastrophic implications for the party. The BJP currently has 18 seats in the Lok Sabha. Each Lok Sabha seat consists of 7 Vidhan Sabha segments. Thus the tally of the BJP considering the Lok Sabha polls is 126 in the 294 member house whose majority is 147. Subhendu's entry will provide a catalytic effect on the BJP's fortunes in the southern and eastern parts of the states particularly in the two Parganas and Nadia Districts strengthening it's position in the western parts where both the BJP has made impressive gains and the Adhikary image is particularly strong. This will push the BJP's tallies by 25-35 seats aiding it to get the majority and thereby get a majority even if it fails to get it desired 200 seats. It will also strengthen the BJP's position at the local level where it is expected to win Panchayats and Municipalities where the Left and Congress were previously at second places.

The political demographic as a result of the 2019 Lok Sabha Polls. The BJP swept the Northern and Western parts winning 18 seats. Subhendu's exit is expected to get the BJP seats in the Southern and Central parts where the TMC is still strong.

Subhendu's defection is also expected to cause a domino effect. In 2016, after Mukul Roy, another veteranTMC leader joined the BJP many other towering personalities left for the BJP. His younger sibling, Soumendro who was the Chairman of the Kanthi Municipal Board and was removed recently from his position joined the BJP on 1st January. It is rumoured that his father, Sishir Adhikary and his elder brother and TMC MP, Dibyendu is also considering to follow suit. His father has complained that even though the TMC had benefitted when he himself had switched over from the Congress with many cadres, on his son's switch-over his family is being insulted as traitors, something which the people will respond when the polls occur. It also incited many disgruntled leaders not only from the TMC but also from parties like the Left and Congress to join the BJP, some of whom joined the party on the same stage as Adhikary. Eminent Left Front leader Dr Sujan Chakraborty reacted to these defections as a repeat of History, when the TMC had forced thousands of workers and high-profile leaders from their party to join the TMC sometimes by threatening to open cases against them after assuming office in 2011.

Subhendu Adhikary is a follower of the ISKON which is expected to play well among the BJP supporters in the state. National media is presenting his switch-over to be as high-profile as Hemanta Biswas Sharma and Jyotiraditya Scindhia, people whose defection accelerated BJP's fortunes in Assam and Madhya Pradesh.

With the 2021 Elections fast approaching the BJP is eager to project a popular Bengali face as the opponent to the TMC and Mamata Banerjee to counter it's `Bohiragoto' (Outsider) claim. Thus, Subhendu which fulfils both these categories can be a probable CM face for the party which is restless to form a government in this state since even though its founder, Shyama Prasad Mukherjee hailed from here, it has over the last seven decades rejected the party after the party has been overwhelming voted at the centre and states with brute majorities. It's only time which will testify whether Subhendu will be the precious kingmaker for the BJP and then ultimately emerge as its king or not.